US Tariff Impact Simulator
INTERACTIVEModel the impact of US tariffs on Canadian crude exports. Adjust the tariff rate and market assumptions to see how it affects WCS pricing, producer economics, Alberta royalties, and individual company exposure. Drag the slider to explore scenarios.
Scenario Inputs
= $6.60/bbl
Tariff Scenario10% = $6.60/bbl
0No tariff25%Severe50%
WCS After Tariff
$45.90
was $52.50 (−$6.60)
Effective Differential
−$20.10
was −$13.50
Annual Cost to Canada
$13.5B CAD
$9.4B USD
Alberta Royalty Loss
$4.1B CAD/yr
at ~30% effective royalty rate
Producer Netback Impact
Netback Before
$17.50/bbl
Netback After Tariff
$10.90/bbl
Break-Even Tariff
$17.50/bbl
before avg producer loses money
Annual Impact by Producer
Estimated annual cost based on heavy oil production exposure
🔴 >$1B CAD annual impact · 🟡 <$1B CAD annual impact · Based on heavy oil % of total production
Detailed Producer Exposure
| Producer | Ticker | Total Prod (kbd) | Heavy % | Exposed (kbd) | Annual Impact (CAD) | Margin Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Natural | CNQ | 1,350 | 55% | 743 | $2576M | -37.7% |
| Cenovus | CVE | 800 | 70% | 560 | $1943M | -37.7% |
| Suncor | SU | 830 | 65% | 540 | $1872M | -37.7% |
| Imperial Oil | IMO | 430 | 55% | 237 | $820M | -37.7% |
| MEG Energy | MEG | 105 | 100% | 105 | $364M | -37.7% |
| Athabasca Oil | ATH | 37 | 85% | 31 | $109M | -37.7% |
Methodology & Assumptions
- • Tariff assumed to be fully absorbed by Canadian producers (worst case — in practice, burden is shared with US refiners)
- • WCS differential widens by the full tariff amount (simplified — actual market dynamics may differ)
- • Producer production figures are approximate based on latest public disclosures
- • Heavy oil % reflects estimated exposure to WCS-linked pricing
- • Alberta royalty impact uses ~30% effective royalty rate (varies by price and project economics)
- • Does not account for behavioral changes (shut-ins, diversion to non-US markets, retaliatory tariffs)
- • This is a simplified scenario model, not a forecast. Actual impacts depend on market structure, contract terms, and policy responses.